Biography[ edit ] Prechter attended Yale University and graduated with a B. He became a drummer for his rock band throughout circa early s. But I finally dug around in the New York Public Library and found a catalog card listing a copy of them on microfilm and had photocopies made. I was amazed to find that there was a wealth of information that had been lost to Wall Street.
|Published (Last):||26 October 2011|
|PDF File Size:||10.36 Mb|
|ePub File Size:||16.22 Mb|
|Price:||Free* [*Free Regsitration Required]|
But even as the Fed was expanding the money supply at a record rate, the drop in the Dow was deeper than one would have expected for wave C of a Primary-degree flat. So, that causal argument is spurious. I chalk it all up to Grand-Supercycle-degree optimism. All that will change when mood turns negative. I have suggested three variations on forms: the leading diagonal in which the odd-numbered waves can subdivide into five , the expanding diagonal and the skewed triangle.
I remain skeptical about the legitimacy of all three of these forms. I suspect the patterns I described are more likely artifacts of imperfect mood recording than legitimate formations.
On the other hand, over the years I and my colleagues have made a number of valuable observations about wave forms that Elliott never noticed. Some have become well-known, others not. They are: 1. Wave three is most often the extended wave. Peak acceleration occurs at the structural center of each wave, i. In the stock market, fifth waves are always weaker than third waves. B waves of contracting triangles often reach a new price extreme. Even so, E waves of triangles in the wave four position always end within the territory of the preceding third wave.
The barrier triangle is a more useful idea than the idea of independent ascending and descending triangles. Zigzags often adhere to channels. In zigzags, A waves tend to be steeper than C waves. In flats, C waves tend to be steeper than A waves.
Useful indicators Gilburt: While we use various technical indicators to support or show the weakness in any wave count, my favorite has been the MACD. Do you have any favorites that have been most useful to you over the years? Prechter: Nearly all momentum indicators provide the same basic information.
There are hundreds of them, because they are easy to construct, especially with computers. But momentum analysis is not simple. In the stock market, slowing momentum nearly always precedes reversals, but slowing momentum does not mean a reversal must follow. The and periods are classic examples. In each case, the market slowed its rise — looking terminal from a momentum standpoint — and then accelerated.
In the first case, I knew wave 3 of 3 was dead ahead, so I was really bullish. The second one threw me off. The most consistently useful momentum indicator is breadth. If I had to rely on only one momentum indicator, that would be it. Prechter: No. Markets are fractals.
Nothing quantitative is meaningful or useful. Gilburt: There is a debate among various schools of thought as to what is more important — price or time. Prechter: What matters most is form. Form involves both price and time, although arguably price is the more definitive component.
Improving accuracy Gilburt: I am sure you have seen a lot of time-cycle analysis in your career. I am just wondering why you think we are unable to develop the same accuracy percentages in timing models as we do in pricing models using Elliott Wave? Prechter: I think the reason for your observation is that cycles are not the essence of markets.
They are artifacts of the fractal form. They appear for a while and then disappear. Usually by the time someone recognizes a cycle and bets on it, it is poised to vanish. I think Fibonacci ratios between the prices and durations of related waves are meaningful. But I also understand how old habits are hard to break, and most still desperately cling to the old Newtonian-based exogenous-causation theories of market analysis.
What sort of reception has the socionomic theory been receiving from the world of academia? Prechter: It has had wisps of success. We have had several academic papers published, and another was accepted by a journal [recently].
A ranking member of the Academy of Behavioral Finance and Economics commented to me that the term socionomics was becoming part of the lexicon, which was encouraging to hear. Several professors at mid-level universities are including it in their courses, and several top professors have been kind enough to provide a good word for the book. Socionomic theory explains why such a reaction is, generally speaking, imperative: People are built better to participate in waves of social mood than to analyze them.
People like you, who do pure market analysis, have been the quickest to get it. Education and resources Gilburt: As new studies into the socionomic aspects of financial markets are performed all the time, are there any other resources for us to follow to gain continuing insight into this perspective?
Prechter: The Socionomics Institute puts out tons of interesting material. The website is full of studies, articles, events and videos. People who like this field should become a member. Gilburt: What are your top three arguments to present to those who do not believe in socionomics but still hold fast to the old exogenous-causation theories?
But I can make three brief statements: 1. See chapters 1, 2 and Financial markets differ in numerous fundamental ways from economic markets, implying that their behaviors spring from different causes. See chapters 12 and See chapters 8 and The future Gilburt: Are you involved in any other projects? Another project we have going is computerizing Elliott Wave analysis. On the business side, I have cut back.
Get ahead of trends in the Asian-Pacific markets
Elliott Wave investor Robert Prechter says a Depression-like shock is coming