Input price data for today and yesterday, along with the previous PVI calculation. If volume today is not greater than volume yesterday, then the PVI stays the same for that day. Together they are known as price accumulation volume indicators. PVI will be more volatile when volume is rising and NVI will be more volatile when volume is decreasing.

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How do you go about projecting profit for a mutual fund? Then a specific market forecast based on my study of various monetary, technical and fundamental indicators. Then we assign risk ratings based on the volatility of the funds -- not beta, but pure volatility, the standard deviation of the funds.

And within each risk group, the funds that have the best profit projection over the next one year, say, receive "Buy" recommendations and the ones that have the worst profit projections rated "Avoid. You really are a veteran newsletter editor. Is it true that your old partner, Glen King Parker, yanked you out of school in with just 6 hours to go on your MBA? I needed a job too, coming out of school, out of the MBA program there.

Opportunity knocked so I answered. I set up an office near the University of Miami and did research on the stock market, pure research. I developed indicator data bases, wrote some computer programs, developed forecasting models, timing models, and ultimately put the whole thing together when we launched the Market Logic newsletter in The year after that I published Stock Market Logic, the book, which disseminated a lot of that research.

And this was the Institute for Econometric Research, which spawned nine investment letters? About half were stock newsletters and we had five mutual fund newsletters. The fund newsletters started with a publication, Money Fund Safety Ratings in As a matter of fact, that was our first newsletter spin-off and awakened our eyes to potential synergies in the newsletter field. The most significant of which was our launch in of Mutual Fund Forecaster, what you would call a full service mutual fund advisory.

Advice for traders and investors. Ratings on all the major funds. That newsletter turned out to be the largest circulation investment advisory service in the country. Recognizing that the magazine field was devoid of a mutual fund entry, we launched Mutual Funds Magazine in Enter Time Warner By late when they knocked on our door for the first time, we had three quarters of a million paid subscribers and a readership of about two and a half million.

They ultimately took over the entire company in May Beginning of the end? I stayed on a transition basis for a little over a year. Once they took control of it, marketing stopped and the newsletters just started wilting. By the end of , they discontinued all of them.

Then as the ad market softened in , , and , their revenues fell sharply for the magazine and rather than stick it out, they just decided they would fold it, which they did at the end of last year.

How does that work? Completely independently. In essence, the seasonality system is a very short-term timing system that focuses on certain favorable times around the end of the month, before holidays, and late in the trading week, as being the best times to own stocks or mutual funds.

Now under this system, there can be as many as 17 - 18 roundtrips a year. Back in the old days, if you will, I would be continuously on the lookout for funds that permitted unlimited load-free trading. At any given time, I was recommending in our Market Logic and Mutual Fund Forecaster newsletters about a dozen to 15 funds.

Today, I just focus on three mutual fund families that encourage trading, rather than trying to get in under an invisible umbrella somewhere at a fund family that might invite me to leave. These fund families are attractive, not just because they do allow frequent traders -- indeed encourage traders -- but also because they offer leverage funds, enabling us to get a little more bang for the buck in the trading scheme.

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Stock Market Logic: A Sophisticated Approach to Profits on Wall Street

Ayres and James F. Hughes, who pioneered the tabulation of advances and declines to interpret stock market movements. It is said that the two indicators assume that "smart" money is traded on quiet days low volume and that the crowd trades on very active days. Therefore, the negative volume index picks out days when the volume is lower than on the previous day, and the positive index picks out days with a higher volume. The PVI is interpreted in reverse. Norman G. Somehow this point has escaped the attention of technicians to date.


Negative volume index



Stock Market Logic by Norman Fosback


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